I have just heard that Brown and Nulabour have now registered above the Tories in today's poll.
The BBC and other media are being fairly sweet to him as well... Is this just a Honeymoon or should we be worried?
I do have some concerns about impact:- Brown, much as I dislike him, comes across with a lot of gravitas.. Cameron comes across as charming...
The country has just has 10 years of Charm personified which unfortunately for the charmer was seen through as largely facile...
Can Cameron start to show more backbone, gravitas and leadership than we have seen to date? Can we start having policies, real hard stuff not involving airy fairy taxes and social experiments that we can in fact get our teeth into?
Hi jonjii.
At first glance, Labour getting back into the lead is worrying. History however demands a more cautious interpretation.
The Tories overturned a Labour lead of double figures when Major replaced Thatcher in 1990. We've seen nothing of that scale yet. Callaghan was always more popular than Thatcher in the late 1970s, and she often struggled to keep the Conservatives' head above water, but it all came out in the wash in that famous 1979 election. So let's wait a few months before reading too much into one poll.
I'm sure we will, jonjii, as we approach the next election, see more of what you ask for in your final paragraph. Hard policies, remember, require considerable time, patience and investigation - and we will get them. I believe the best is yet to come for the Conservative Party.
Well one bad poll does not a Tory nightmare make but that
taken on top of the Grammar school debacle, the apparent
cock up over the museums and general uncertainty and flip
flopping about does indicate a bit of wobbling.
In some ways I think he is right though... The Tories are
hard to govern as the broad church means that when one tries
to please one faction another isn't going to like it.
I don't know what to suggest... I would love to pledge my
allegiance in that although I don't necessarily agree with everything
on the balance I do... but at the moment that
isn't true.
I am not too concerned just yet. Brown may have 'gravitas' but he also has a quick tongue and a temper on him, and I think that could cause him trouble. I was expecting a honeymoon period of some sort, which is one reason why a snap election would not necessarily be a good thing for the Tories.
I agree that the Tories have messed up on a few things recently, but absolutely nothing on the scale of Labour, and I believe it can be rectified. Brown may well make some small concessions in the early days but essentially he is Left Left Left and that is bound to come out sooner or later. Britain is not and never really has been a truly left wing country (thank God).
As for the BBC - they have been Labour's propaganda machine for ages. I haven't listened to a word they have said in ages!
I think the Conservatives have had an exceptionally bad press recently, amplified by the excitement of the incoming PM - I'm getting quite irritated by this (hopefully temporary) biased media coverage.
You're right, jonjii, Michael Portillo probably does have something of a chip on his shoulder. He did not win the Tory leadership in 2001 (ironically on a modernising agenda) and left Parliament in 2005.
As a regular pundit on This Week, I remember Portillo saying, during the run-up in the leadership campaigns, that he believed DC to be the best future leader but needed to get more experience. Portillo didn't diss DC but saw the dangers in his position.
Not another one... for gawd's sake haven't we had enough of them? Thatcher was a conviction politician, Blair's a conviction politician - both proved to be a blunder-prone, self-deluding pain in the backside, and in Blair's case an international public menace.
What we need is someone whose decisions are not driven by personal belief and wild assumption but by careful apparaisal of the situation and analysis of the facts, and by the courage to do the decent thing.
If you look at q12, you can see that 35% of their base voted Labour, yet only 20% voted Tory. Well we know that's not even vaguely representative.
Even then, it's just a poll. The electorate clearly don't understand what any of the party leaders stand for. This will probably change before an election in 2010.
I don't really buy it either, Dave - not in the long term anyway. In the 2001 election Labour were ahead by 40% to 31%. In 2005 it was 35% to 32%. Labour would have to defy political gravity and all precedents at the next election to remain ahead in the popular vote.
I think the poll hit a biased population base.
Can easy happen even with careful screening.
But this sort of result at this time shouldn't be a suprise and will almost certainly swing back.
DavidG & Votedave are right.
But Votedave - Labour could defy gravity.
This is not a normal situation.
GB will have a honeymoon, the electorate will give him the benefit of the doubt.
Right now its all about image.
But 2010 - not sure! We have to be ready whenever.
GB will not play to our tune.
I think this could be interpreted to Cameron's advantage,
I will try to copy the relevant section and put in bold the appropriate figures of 39 and 27 relating to those who have not yet decided. Surely that means people have not yet made up their mind for Cameron whilst for Goverment and Blair they have already made a decision as being dissatisfied?
Base: 984 British adults 18+ Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
% % % %
Government (Q3) 30 61 9 -31
Blair (Q4) 33 60 7 -27
Cameron (Q5) 28 33 39 -5
Campbell (Q6) 21 33 46 -25
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?
Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?
Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
Base: All party supporters Base Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
n % % % %
Government (Q3) 314 59 35 6 24
Blair (Q4) 314 58 35 7 23
Cameron (Q5) 237 50 22 27 28
Campbell (Q6) 117 49 33 18 16
No enthusiasm for Europe, no sentimentality about the special relationship with the United States, no nostalgia for old Labour will deflect him from the single purpose of still being Prime Minister after the general election.
We are about to get a lesson in ruthlessness and single- mindedness.
So forget analysing the polls, we need to get our act together and start being even more single-minded and ruthless.
The thread is 'Where is the Tory's soul'
Sorry Glynne but I love stats! They are so versatile and I felt proved something different from the press coverage
Jonjii, the honeymoon will be short lived. He is an aggresive bully boy who taxes with impunity but cannot make difficult decisions eg caving into the public sector unions on pensions.
He is like most bullies happy to rain misery in a controlling way but backs off if challenged.
Blair has confided to his closest advisors that he fears Gordon Brown could be Labour's Al Gore and will lead the party to defeat at the next general election
Before Blair announced his departure date at Trimdon, Labour had its worst poll rating since the Michael Foot days of 1983. When this honeymoon/bounce comes to end, it is going to crash-land.
Underestimating Gordon Brown will cost us the election if we are not carefull.
If Gordon is half as sharp with polls as he is with finnance the he will out smart the tories.
There are two roads for Gordon. 1 A sad figure that missed his chance, 2 A honest man that deserves a chance.
At the moment he is capitilising on the second quite well!
If Brown was responsible for the financial set up of the Renewables Obligation Certificates, we need to be wary,
That has been done by an Einstein of the financial world.
Another one, from a new polling company, puts Tories 5 points up:
http://www.communicateresearch.com/poll.php?id=106 (PDF)
Lots of numbers to crunch eg
- Over 55s are almost 3x more likely to vote than under 25s.
- Professional management types are 50% more likely to vote than skilled manual workers.
- Women are about 5% more likely to vote than men.
- Plaid Cymru & UKIP are best at getting out the vote, followed by Tories, then Labour, then LibDems
- If there was a legal requirement to vote, Labour would poll almost twice as high as the Tories.
From the Independent article:
Among men, the Tories (40 per cent) have a 10-point lead over Labour (30 per cent), but only a small two-point advantage among women, leading Labour by 35 per cent to 33 per cent. There is also a signficant "age gap". Labour is ahead among the 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 age groups, but the Tories hold the lead among 45-54s, 55-64s and those 65 and over.
Brown, much as I dislike him, comes across with a lot of gravitas.. Cameron comes across as charming...
For me the reason that Brown comes across with such gravitas is purely for the reason that he's been visible in a government for over 10 years. The Tories on the other hand spent the best part of 7 years flapping about like a fish out of water. People have come and gone but no-one has stuck around long enough to become a heavyweight.
For me, since '97 the only conservatives who've had any sort of gravitas have been Ken Clarke, Boris Johnson and William Hague. It wasn't until the most recent vote for Tory leader that I've started to see people who I BELIEVE could govern.
I was moved to the core when I started watching Cameron and Davies debating and arguing (or debating and agreeing on occasion!). It made me sit up and start taking notice.
Since then I've seen George Osbourne arrive on the scene, I've started to notice people like Andrew Lansley and Alan Duncan, people I hadn't noticed before.
I think as the opposition grows their characters and reputations will grow and soon it'll not just be the Cameron charm vs the Brown gravitas but a solid bunch of people I'd trust to run the country vs a bunch of arrogant untrustworthy has beens. It's taken over 10 yrs but the tables are turning!
Cameron charm vs the Brown gravitas but a solid bunch of people I'd trust to run the country vs a bunch of arrogant untrustworthy has beens. It's taken over 10 yrs but the tables are turning!
High time to strike back by Lyn Harrison Editor Wind Power Monthly Sept/04
Why should the reactionary antics of a “has-been island” off the north European coast be of concern to the international wind power industry? Because if Britain's current energy policies give way under the pressure, the wind market will collapse, taking with it the reputation of this entire industry.
Choosing the weapons - If the wind industry is to stop the anti-wind power rot in Britain it needs to take serious action on two fronts. First, it must put huge sums of money into an aggressive counter campaign, nothing less than a painstakingly informed, beautifully articulate, highly professional, well orchestrated, wide reaching and proactive public relations crusade. A first aim should be to mend the British public's disconnect between the problem of global warming - and one of its best solutions. Arming a top celebrity or two to lead the charge would be good. The message has to be clear, confident and unapologetic.
He's had a 10-year honeymoon during which he has never spoken out against the folly of Blair and his cabinet and has poured our money into Blair's wasteful schemes. I trust Her Majesty's Opposition will be merciless and give no quarter! And certainly grant no honeymoon.
Bugger the facts... just Spin Spin Spin
An appropriate symbol for wind turbines !!
Jonjii is so right.
What is more the blades can /do come off, can/do catch fire,the gearboxes can/do fail,the turbines can/do make a noise. Wind turbines do affect radar and although the two systems currently under investigation to mitigate this ,have potential, they have a long way to go before the safety of aircraft near and above wind turbines can be assured.
The turbines are NOT in the North East of England making their 'promised' contribution to combat climate change.
Investor confidence is falling which is why I am so concerned that Brown's forte is as an economist,Barker is an Economist,The Stern report is on the economics of climate change.
The Regional Economic Strategy for the North East, (RES) submitted to the Minister in 1999 described the North East as “Europe’s ‘we can do it Region”
We are our own region not Europe’s!
The turbines are NOT in the North East of England making their 'promised' contribution to combat climate change.
I live outside of Newcastle in a town that has several offshore turbines. According to people I know in the town and through my own observations no one can recall a time when ALL the turbines were working at the same time. And I'll add this, with the wind we have in Blyth they could generate a heck of a lot of electricity. No idea why they don't work. But what a waste of time, money and effort.
If you wanted to spin this poll result all you would do is say that you were surprised that the bounce wasn't bigger for a new leader.
Brown has an ugly personality trait, we've all heard the control freak rumours, the back-stabbing of his former boss, the inability to deal with criticsm. I would make Hague the hatchet man to come out, taunt Brown, critique his policies. Then I would have Cameron come out and roll out positive new policies to counter the same old crap from Brown. Either you have to believe that Brown had nothing to do with failed policy over the last decade, in which case how does his 'experience' count for him in any areas other than economics, or he was pivotal as he has said before in shaping policy.....and has just been really bad at it!
gdarmst0 Don't think the industry know either!
Please visit http://www.wind-farm.co.uk where you will find a decade of research. Extract re Blyth follows.
Blyth Offshore, Blyth harbour, must be mentioned particularly as they have been given a high profile. When the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) document was launched for consultation, Bob Gibson, Chair of the North East Assembly named Blyth Harbour and Blyth Offshore Wind farms as Flagship projects (Source NEREG).Neither Blyth onshore or offshore wind turbines are working as expected.
With no one willing or able it seems to contest the underhand methodology I have come across during the last decade, commercial wind power is threatening the special character and qualities of areas valued not only by British citizens but by people throughout the world.
The North East region is most vulnerable
(I know Blyth well as my father was born there)
The honeymoon period and how long it will last is debatable. If we see real action being taken and not just talk of 'changes' then it might stay around for longer than you think. However if Brown fails to capitalise on this 'honeymoon period' and doesn't take action quickly and swiftly then he could be left out at sea.
It's entirely possible that once the media are bored of showing him in a good light that he'll fall out of favour as quickly as Blair did.
If we see real action being taken and not just talk of 'changes' then it might stay around for longer than you think.
Any prat can make changes it's the consequenses of those changes that prove the efficacy of the policy - (gosh I like that).
I'm obviously missing a trick here Amber, because considering the fact the Brown has been the second most powerful figure in British politics for the past ten years his contribution to the formation and execution of policy and thus the state of the nation is as tangible as a house brick in your gob!! Therefore if everything has been so rosey in the garden, why the need for "changes" - erm.. lets leave that one for the moment.
Lets try a different tack. In consideration of this honeymoon period I await with rapt anticipation to these "changes" he's going to make. A fresh Cabinet of new talent and vibrant personalities waiting in the wings to take up the reins and strains of power - god bless em all!! Ah just one thing though - I assume his new pulsating team of cabinet buddies are all going to be derived from his existing little group of bottom lickers. I further assume that, based on suggestions of "stalinist management" techniques, they will not be following their own agendas but that of Prime Minister Brown? Therefore, going back to my original though, we have at the helm a person who has been instrumental in british policy for the last ten years backed up by the same group of advisors for the past ten years! - errrmmmm what's going to be the great "changes" if it's the same poeple. Are we on the cusp of a paradigm shift in their thought processes perhaps!! - alas I fear we'd better leave that one as well!
So lets toddle on to Plan C then. We have been told that Blair and Brown have had such a close and cordial working relationship over the past ten years and have been fully in agreement over all matters of policy formulation and policy execution. Hand shakes and smiles at Conference and Summits and press releases inseperable buddies sharing a common goal and leading us all down the yellow brick road to a communal utopia - peaches and cream, two peas in a pod - soul buddies!! Okie dokie - if that is so then why does Brown feel it neccessary, within nano-seconds of Blair departing office, that there needs to be "changes", has Dorothy strayed from the path a bit? Surely not "changes" just a tweek here and fiddle there and all is peachy again!!
Please, give me a break!! What a load of crap!!
This "merchant banker" has had his "honeymoon" and its lasted for the past ten years and look at the bloody mess he's made of pensions for example, taxes are the highest in the western world and his own personal "look its' my idea" scheme ta dah - TAX CREDITS - great, what a bollox up that is.
Any prat can make changes it's the consequences of those changes that prove the efficacy of the policy - (gosh I like that).
No, I agree with you to some extent. Firstly it’s whether he does deliver. He’s promised these things, but will he do them? If he does then he’ll prove he’s not just another Blair with ‘empty promises’. Secondly, it’s if these changes actually make a difference (and a beneficial one), then it’s if the public supports them.
As for your second statement - Brown has said he’ll continue the good work from the last 10 years and make changes where ‘things haven’t gone so well’. So he acknowledges that some things have been a disaster and promises to change that. Whether they will be good, effective, changes remains to be seen. As it is, he needs to make people associate himself with change. As a person who’s been very much apart of Labour for the past 10 years he needs to emphasise this much more than the other political parties.
… as for this ‘peaceful’ working relationship between Brown and Blair I certainly haven’t seen any of it. Did you read the recent Independent article on Blair trying to oust Brown as chancellor after the last elections? As it is, Alan Johnson will remain in Browns cabinet as Health minister and he was always quite the ’Blairite’.
While the idea of getting people from outside his own party as a part of the cabinet I find the idea somewhat wishful thinking. Can they all put their respective party loyalties aside and work together for the benefit of the people? I’m not so sure.
Another concern of mine is the new Chancellor - Alistair Darling - and how much power he will get. Will Brown be too preoccupied with the Treasury to continue doing his job as PM properly? Just what will happen to the Treasury? Will it be re-juggled? Will there be a battle for power?
And then there’s the debate of interest rates which, if they go the wrong way, could mean that the honeymoon period ends before it’s even truly began.
gdarmst0
Thought you might find this of interest with all the recent flooding. It may prove relevant to the proposed repowering of the turbines on the pier at Blyth
Northumbria Regional Flood Defence Committee 2005/06
Blyth sea defences " Existing defences in the form of the perimeter harbour walls and local defences-are of questionable quality a more detailed assessment of the flood risk here will provide a clear appraisal of the standard of protection required."
Sorry got a cross thread and posted on Tilting at Windmills.
As an European I can only hope that the honeymoon will not be too long... Even though it might be a new government, it might proof better, to have a new governing party all together, since most of the changes Mr. Brown made were purely on the surface. There needs to be a big change, especially in foreign Policy, an argument, which Stanley Sloan also makes. The recent developments have shown, that a transatlantic gap has to be avoided.[url]
